A generalised Bayes' factor formula for evidence evaluation under activity level propositions: Variations around a fibres scenario. (May 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Taroni, Franco; Garbolino, Paolo; Aitken, Colin
• Is Part Of: Forensic science international. Volume 322(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-05
• Subjects: Bayes' factor -- Scientific evidence evaluation -- Activity level proposition; Medical jurisprudence -- Periodicals; Chemistry, Forensic -- Periodicals; Forensic Medicine -- Periodicals; Médecine légale -- Périodiques; Chimie légale -- Périodiques; Gerechtelijke geneeskunde; Gerechtelijke chemie; Gerechtelijke psychiatrie; Chemistry, Forensic; Medical jurisprudence; Electronic journals; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 614.1
• DOI: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2021.110750
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0379-0738

Abstract

Highlights: Generalised Bayes' factor equations are developed for the transfer of extrinsic evidence at the activity level hypotheses. Activity level transfer case factors are listed along with their roles in the determination of evidential value. A generalised Bayesian network is developed for the transfer of extrinsic evidence. Examples involving textile fibres from clothing are introduced. Abstract: Generalised Bayes' factors and associated Bayesian networks are developed for the transfer of extrinsic evidence at the activity level, developments that extend previous work on activity level evaluation. A strategy for the assessment of extrinsic evidence is developed in stages with progressive increases in complexity. The final development is illustrated with an example involving fibres from clothing. This provides a list of factors involved in the consideration of a transfer case with activity level propositions and their roles in the determination of evidential value.