Effect of APCF policy on the haze pollution in China: A system dynamics approach. (February 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Jia, Shuwei; Liu, Xiaolu; Yan, Guangle
• Is Part Of: Energy policy. Volume 125(2019)
• Page Start: 33
• Page End: 44
• Publication Date: 2019-02
• Subjects: Vehicle emissions -- Haze pollution -- System dynamics -- Rebound effects -- Inflection-point effect; Energy policy -- Periodicals; Politique énergétique -- Périodiques; Electronic journals; 333.79
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.10.012
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0301-4215

Abstract

Abstract: To study the effect of the air pollution charging fee (APCF) policy on the haze pollution in China, a dynamics management model is constructed with the approach of system dynamics and implemented by using the Vensim software. This model is used to simulate and assess the effect of APCF policy on the traffic and the emissions (particularly carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), nitrogen oxides (NOx ), and particulate matter (PM)) in Beijing during the years 2011–2025 in different scenarios. The validity and the robustness of the model are verified by a model test and validation, and a reasonable range of APCF is determined by using a sensitivity analysis. The simulation results showed that the APCF policy effectively realized the "win-win" scenario of emission reduction and congestion release. In particular, the simulation results also indicated some policy effects such as rebound effect (from low-APCF policy), inflection-point effect (from high-APCF policy), and marginal decreasing effect (between moderate and high-APCF policy). These results provide some valid policy recommendations for energy management and emission reduction. Highlights: The creation of vehicle pollutant emission reduction model using system dynamics. The influence of CO, HC, NOx, and PMx emissions under different scenarios. The rebound effect and inflection-point effect of air pollution charging fee policy.