Effectiveness of crop residuals in ethanol and pyrolysis-based electricity production: A stochastic analysis under uncertain climate impacts. (February 2019) - Kung, Chih-Chun
Abstract: Taiwan aims to replace all nuclear power with renewable energy by 2025, and thus how much electricity from such sources can actually sustain or improve its energy structure must be thoroughly evaluated. This study is designed to explore the Taiwan's bioenergy potential in the face of climate change and climate-induced crop yield change. Multiple bioenergy technologies and energy crops and residuals are embedded in a two-stage stochastic programming with recourse model to discover their efficiency under changes in crop yields and market conditions. The results show that up to 2.26% of total electricity demand can be fulfilled with pyrolysis-based electricity and more than 3.1 million tons of emission reduction can be achieved. Climate-induced crop yield change, if it is small, shall not have considerable influences on bioenergy technology selection and bioenergy output, but land use may be altered considerably with an additional $NT 2.88 billion dollars in government expenditures on support programs. Highlights: Ethanol will be phased out at higher levels of electricity and GHG prices. Up to 4.54 billion kWh of electricity can be generated by pyrolysis. Utilization of crop residuals contributes to electricity supply and GHG offset. Climate-induced impacts result in an additional NT$ 2.88 billion dollars expense.