Economic dispatch considering the wind power forecast error. Issue 12 (25th May 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Han, Li; Romero, Carlos E; Wang, Xuesong; Shi, Liping
• Is Part Of: IET generation, transmission & distribution. Volume 12:Issue 12(2018)
• Page Start: 2861
• Page End: 2870
• Publication Date: 2018-05-25
• Subjects: load forecasting -- wind power plants -- power generation economics -- power generation dispatch -- power grids -- principal component analysis -- risk management -- fossil fuels -- steam power stations -- power generation reliability; economic dispatch -- wind power forecast error -- electric power grid -- FE -- wind generation -- principle component analysis -- risk factor -- RF -- fossil fuel‐fired power plant -- fossils fuel -- reliability; Electric power production -- Periodicals; Electric power transmission -- Periodicals; Electric power distribution -- Periodicals; 621.3105
• DOI: 10.1049/iet-gtd.2017.1638
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1751-8687

Abstract

Abstract : Dispatch results depend on the forecast wind power in an electric power grid. High levels of uncertainty in wind power lead to large forecast errors (FEs). Wind power FE creates an imbalance between power load demand and supply, which poses risks to the power grid. To minimise the risk caused by uncertainty in wind power, FE was analysed. The actual and forecast power of wind generations were studied to determine which factors had strong relationships with FE. After being analysed by principle component analysis, these factors were used to build an assessment model to estimate FE. According to the output of the assessment model, risk factor (RF) was defined to evaluate the risk‐level associated with wind power. Moreover, based on a grid including wind generation and fossil fuel‐fired power plants, a dispatch model was built to account for the cost of fossils fuels and RF. This dispatch model was studied to find strategies for decreasing the impact of wind power on the grid. The results from their research will increase the safety and reliability of power grids with uncertain levels of wind power and promote the widespread use of wind power.