Evaluating strange forecasts: The curious case of football match scorelines. (4th November 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Reade, J. James; Singleton, Carl; Brown, Alasdair
• Is Part Of: Scottish journal of political economy. Volume 68:Number 2(2021)
• Page Start: 261
• Page End: 285
• Publication Date: 2020-11-04
• Subjects: forecasting -- prediction markets -- regression models -- statistical modelling; Great Britain -- Economic conditions -- 1945-1964 -- Periodicals; Great Britain -- Economic conditions -- 1964-1979 -- Periodicals; Great Britain -- Economic conditions -- 1979-1997 -- Periodicals; 330.9411005
• DOI: 10.1111/sjpe.12264
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0036-9292

Abstract

Abstract: This study analyses point forecasts of exact scoreline outcomes for football matches in the English Premier League. These forecasts were made for distinct competitions and originally judged differently. We compare these with implied probability forecasts using bookmaker odds and a crowd of tipsters, as well as point and probability forecasts generated from a statistical model. From evaluating these sources and types of forecast, using various methods, we argue that regression encompassing is the most appropriate way to compare point and probability forecasts, and find that both these types of forecasts for football match scorelines generally add information to one another.