Reconciling global sustainability targets and local action for food production and climate change mitigation. (November 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gil, Juliana D.B.; Daioglou, Vassilis; van Ittersum, Martin; Reidsma, Pytrik; Doelman, Jonathan C.; van Middelaar, Corina E.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.
• Is Part Of: Global environmental change. Volume 59(2019)
• Publication Date: 2019-11
• Subjects: Sustainable Development Goals -- Cross-scale analysis -- Trade-offs -- Scenario analysis -- Agriculture; Environmental policy -- Periodicals; Human ecology -- Periodicals; Nature -- Effect of human beings on -- Periodicals; Environment -- Periodicals; Environnement -- Politique gouvernementale -- Périodiques; Écologie humaine -- Périodiques; Homme -- Influence sur la nature -- Périodiques; Environmental policy; Human ecology; Nature -- Effect of human beings on; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 333.7
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101983
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0959-3780

Abstract

Highlights: Global climate mitigation targets and local agricultural policies must be internally consistent. We project the emission intensity of agriculture at global, regional and national levels. Food production and climate mitigation require systemic changes beyond technological fixes. Cross-scale thinking is needed for the operationalization of the Sustainable Development Goals. Abstract: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) imply country-led implementation. Yet, their achievement depends on sustainability targets compatible across different sectors and scales. Our study examines how the GHG emission intensity of agriculture (EIA) should evolve globally, regionally (Western Europe) and nationally (The Netherlands) under different socioeconomic pathways, so that two major aims of SDGs 2 and 13 (i.e. sufficient food production and climate change mitigation) are achieved simultaneously. Results show that, by 2050, relative to 2010 values, EIA should decrease at all three levels when measured on a product basis (GHG emissions per ton dry matter) and on a land basis (GHG emissions per ha). This indicates that, globally, agriculture should be intensified per unit area, while in Western Europe and even more so in the Netherlands additional emission reductions require increased production efficiency and lower production volumes. Projected reductions in methane and nitrous oxide emissions from enteric fermentation, manure management and fertilizer application in Dutch agriculture are much higher than what would be achieved through the extrapolation of current trends. Given the high costs of increasing production efficiency further, our analysis indicates the need for significantly more ambitious policy targets and systemic changes, including reduced consumption of animal-sourced food. Besides shedding light on the interaction between climate and agricultural strategies, our analysis illustrates the application of cross-scale thinking in the operationalization of the SDG agenda and underscores the need for concerted action amongst countries.