Hawking radiation and analogue experiments: A Bayesian analysis. (August 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Dardashti, Radin; Hartmann, Stephan; Thébault, Karim; Winsberg, Eric
• Is Part Of: Studies in history and philosophy of modern physics. Volume 67(2019)
• Page Start: 1
• Page End: 11
• Publication Date: 2019-08
• Subjects: Physics -- Philosophy -- Periodicals; Physics -- History -- Periodicals; 530.01
• DOI: 10.1016/j.shpsb.2019.04.004
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1355-2198

Abstract

Abstract: We present a Bayesian analysis of the epistemology of analogue experiments with particular reference to Hawking radiation. First, we prove that such experiments can be confirmatory in Bayesian terms based upon appeal to 'universality arguments'. Second, we provide a formal model for the scaling behaviour of the confirmation measure for multiple distinct realisations of the analogue system and isolate a generic saturation feature. Finally, we demonstrate that different potential analogue realisations could provide different levels of confirmation. Our results provide a basis both to formalise the epistemic value of analogue experiments that have been conducted and to advise scientists as to the respective epistemic value of future analogue experiments. Highlights: A Bayesian analysis of analogue experiments on Hawking radiation is provided. A Theorem proves confirmation via an appeal to `universality arguments'. Two further theorems study further quantitive implications.