Effect of early application of social distancing interventions on COVID-19 mortality over the first pandemic wave: An analysis of longitudinal data from 37 countries. Issue 1 (January 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Piovani, Daniele; Christodoulou, Maria Nefeli; Hadjidemetriou, Andreas; Pantavou, Katerina; Zaza, Paraskevi; Bagos, Pantelis G.; Bonovas, Stefanos; Nikolopoulos, Georgios K.
• Is Part Of: Journal of infection. Volume 82:Issue 1(2021)
• Page Start: 133
• Page End: 142
• Publication Date: 2021-01
• Subjects: Covid-19 -- Sars-cov-2 -- 2019-ncov -- Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Infection -- Periodicals; Bacterial Infections -- Periodicals; Communicable Diseases -- Periodicals; Electronic journals; 616.905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2020.11.033
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0163-4453

Abstract

Highlights: Earlier application of social distancing interventions reduced Covid-19 mortality. Concurrent restrictions on gatherings and schools reduced fatalities more effectively. Timing of interventions is a key factor in preventing Covid-19 mortality. Our findings can assist health policy decisions for upcoming pandemic waves. Abstract: Objectives: To estimate the effect of early application of social distancing interventions on Covid-19 cumulative mortality during the first pandemic wave. Methods: Ecological longitudinal study using multivariable negative binomial regression for panel data. Daily numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths, and data on social distancing interventions, for the 37 member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) were analysed. Results: Covid-19 cumulative mortality over the first pandemic wave varied widely across countries (range, 4.16 to 855 deaths per million population). On average, one-day delay in application of mass gatherings ban was associated with an adjusted increase in Covid-19 cumulative mortality by 6.97% (95% CI, 3.45 to 10.5), whilst a one-day delay in school closures was associated with an increase of 4.37% (95% CI, 1.58 to 7.17) over the study period. We estimated that if each country had enacted both interventions one week earlier, Covid-19 cumulative mortality could have been reduced by an average of 44.1% (95% CI, 20.2 to 67.9). Conclusions: Early application of mass gatherings ban and school closures in outbreak epicentres was associated with an important reduction in Covid-19 cumulative mortality during the first pandemic wave. These findings may support policy decision making.