Standard Precipitation Index Drought Forecasting Using Neural Networks, Wavelet Neural Networks, and Support Vector Regression. (26th September 2012)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Belayneh, A.; Adamowski, J.
• Other Names: Chai Quek Hiok Academic Editor.
• Is Part Of: Applied computational intelligence and soft computing. Volume 2012(2012)
• Publication Date: 2012-09-26
• Subjects: Computational intelligence -- Periodicals; Soft computing -- Periodicals; 006.305
• DOI: 10.1155/2012/794061
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1687-9724

Abstract

Abstract : Drought forecasts can be an effective tool for mitigating some of the more adverse consequences of drought. Data-driven models are suitable forecasting tools due to their rapid development times, as well as minimal information requirements compared to the information required for physically based models. This study compares the effectiveness of three data-driven models for forecasting drought conditions in the Awash River Basin of Ethiopia. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) is forecast and compared using artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector regression (SVR), and wavelet neural networks (WN). SPI 3 and SPI 12 were the SPI values that were forecasted. These SPI values were forecast over lead times of 1 and 6 months. The performance of all the models was compared using RMSE, MAE, and R 2 . The forecast results indicate that the coupled wavelet neural network (WN) models were the best models for forecasting SPI values over multiple lead times in the Awash River Basin in Ethiopia.