Modelling future lahars controlled by different volcanic eruption scenarios at Cotopaxi (Ecuador) calibrated with the massively destructive 1877 lahar. Issue 3 (5th February 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Frimberger, Theresa; Andrade, S. Daniel; Weber, Samuel; Krautblatter, Michael
• Is Part Of: Earth surface processes and landforms. Volume 46:Issue 3(2021)
• Page Start: 680
• Page End: 700
• Publication Date: 2021-02-05
• Subjects: debris flow erosion -- lahar -- model calibration -- numerical model -- predictive modelling; Geomorphology -- Periodicals; 551.4
• DOI: 10.1002/esp.5056
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0197-9337

Abstract

Abstract: Lahars are among the most hazardous mass flow processes on earth and have caused up to 23 000 casualties in single events in the recent past. The Cotopaxi volcano, 60 km southeast of Quito, has a well‐documented history of massively destructive lahars and is a hotspot for future lahars due to (i) its ~10 km 2 glacier cap, (ii) its 117–147‐year return period of (Sub)‐Plinian eruptions, and (iii) the densely populated potential inundation zones (300 000 inhabitants). Previous mechanical lahar models often do not (i) capture the steep initial lahar trajectory, (ii) reproduce multiple flow paths including bifurcation and confluence, and (iii) generate appropriate key parameters like flow speed and pressure at the base as a measure of erosion capacity. Here, we back‐calculate the well‐documented 1877 lahar using the RAMMS debris flow model with an implemented entrainment algorithm, covering the entire lahar path from the volcano edifice to an extent of ~70 km from the source. To evaluate the sensitivity and to constrain the model input range, we systematically explore input parameter values, especially the Voellmy–Salm friction coefficients μ and ξ . Objective selection of the most likely parameter combinations enables a realistic and robust lahar hazard representation. Detailed historic records for flow height, flow velocity, peak discharge, travel time and inundation limits match best with a very low Coulomb‐type friction μ (0.0025–0.005) and a high turbulent friction ξ (1000–1400 m/s 2 ). Finally, we apply the calibrated model to future eruption scenarios (Volcanic Explosivity Index = 2–3, 3–4, >4) at Cotopaxi and accordingly scaled lahars. For the first time, we anticipate a potential volume growth of 50–400% due to lahar erosivity on steep volcano flanks. Here we develop a generic Voellmy–Salm approach across different scales of high‐magnitude lahars and show how it can be used to anticipate future syneruptive lahars. Abstract : A generic model approach is developed to simulate massive syneruptive lahars at Cotopaxi from initiation on the steep volcano flanks to distal reaches. Evaluation of 14 calibration constraints shows that the Voellmy–Salm model reliably reproduces bulk behaviour of syneruptive lahars. Estimations of lahar erosivity on the volcano flanks anticipate an erosion‐related volume increase for future Cotopaxi lahars between 50 and 400%.