Why uncertainty in community livelihood adaptation is important for adaptive delta management: A case study in polders of Southwest Bangladesh. Issue 119 (May 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Kulsum, Umme; Timmermans, Jos; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Shah Alam Khan, M.; Thissen, Wil
• Is Part Of: Environmental science & policy. Issue 119(2021)
• Page Start: 54
• Page End: 65
• Publication Date: 2021-05
• Subjects: Uncertainty -- Community Livelihood Adaptation -- Polders -- Adaptive Delta Management -- Bangladesh; Environmental policy -- Periodicals; Environmental sciences -- Periodicals; Environnement -- Politique gouvernementale -- Périodiques; Sciences de l'environnement -- Périodiques; Environmental policy; Environmental sciences; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 363.70561
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2021.01.004
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1462-9011

Abstract

Highlights: Community Livelihood Adaptation (CLA) can have significant impacts on polder management. The shift from rice to shrimp, as unanticipated livelihood pathway for salinization, has changed the polder functionality. Tidal River Management has risen as livelihood adaptation to waterlogging led by social (un)acceptance of polder management. Delta planners should listen to CLA, and accommodate uncertainties resulting from CLA for robust and adaptive investment. Abstract: To deal with large uncertainties about future climate and socio-economic developments, planners in deltas are adopting an integrative and adaptive planning approach referred to as Adaptive Delta Management (ADM). Bangladesh has used the ADM approach for the development of its adaptive plan; Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 (BDP 2100). The success of policy strategies in an adaptive delta plan critically depends on a specific adaptation of livelihoods of local communities (Community Livelihood Adaptation; CLA), especially in an agriculture-oriented society like Bangladesh. For example, while triple rice cropping might be evaluated as a robust strategy in all futures considered, its success eventually depends on whether farmers' will actually make that choice, which is deeply uncertain. In this paper, we use literature review, insights from interviews and field observations to examine how the uncertainty in CLA impacts (adaptive) delta management. We study two historical cases of livelihood adaptation of farmer communities confronted with salinization and waterlogging in the polders of southwest Bangladesh since the 1960s. We conclude that historically the uncertainty about CLA in polders has been ignored in the development of policy plans, leading to the failure of anticipated policy outcomes. We recommend planners in Bangladesh and other deltas worldwide to take account of CLA as uncertainty when developing long-term adaptive plans.