Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic in eliminating trachoma as a public health problem. (15th January 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Blumberg, Seth; Borlase, Anna; Prada, Joaquin M; Solomon, Anthony W; Emerson, Paul; Hooper, Pamela J; Deiner, Michael S; Amoah, Benjamin; Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Porco, Travis C; Lietman, Thomas M
• Is Part Of: Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Volume 115:Number 3(2021)
• Page Start: 222
• Page End: 228
• Publication Date: 2021-01-15
• Subjects: control -- COVID-19 -- elimination -- mass drug administration -- mathematical modelling -- trachoma; Tropical medicine -- Periodicals; 616.9883
• DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/traa170
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0035-9203

Abstract

Abstract: Background: Progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been substantial, but the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted community-based control efforts. Methods: We use a susceptible-infected model to estimate the impact of delayed distribution of azithromycin treatment on the prevalence of active trachoma. Results: We identify three distinct scenarios for geographic districts depending on whether the basic reproduction number and the treatment-associated reproduction number are above or below a value of 1. We find that when the basic reproduction number is <1, no significant delays in disease control will be caused. However, when the basic reproduction number is >1, significant delays can occur. In most districts, 1 y of COVID-related delay can be mitigated by a single extra round of mass drug administration. However, supercritical districts require a new paradigm of infection control because the current strategies will not eliminate disease. Conclusions: If the pandemic can motivate judicious, community-specific implementation of control strategies, global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem could be accelerated.