The representation of winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in ECMWF seasonal prediction systems. (3rd February 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Davini, Paolo; Weisheimer, Antje; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Johnson, Stephanie J.; Molteni, Franco; Roberts, Christopher D.; Senan, Retish; Stockdale, Timothy N.
• Is Part Of: Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Volume 147:Number 735(2021)
• Page Start: 1344
• Page End: 1363
• Publication Date: 2021-02-03
• Subjects: atmospheric blocking -- atmospheric dynamics -- climate models -- seasonal forecast -- SEAS5; Meteorology -- Periodicals; 551.5
• DOI: 10.1002/qj.3974
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0035-9009

Abstract

Abstract: The simulation and prediction of winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in the seasonal prediction systems from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is analysed. Blocking statistics from the operational November‐initialised seasonal hindcasts are evaluated in three generations of models: System3, System4, and System5 (SEAS5). Improvements in the climatological representation of blocking are observed in the most recent model configurations, with reduced bias over North Pacific and Greenland. Minor progress is seen over the European sector, where SEAS5 still underestimates the observed blocking frequency. SEAS5 blocking interannual variability is underestimated too and is proportional to the climatological frequency, highlighting that a negative bias in the blocking frequency implies an underestimation of the interannual variance. SEAS5 predictive skill and signal‐to‐noise ratio remain low, but interesting positive results are found over Western and Central Europe. Improved forecasts with reduced ensemble spread are obtained during El Niño years, especially at low latitudes. Complementary experiments show that the statistics of blocking are improved following atmospheric and oceanic resolution increase. Conversely, they remain largely insensitive to coupled model sea‐surface temperature (SST) errors. On the other hand, the implementation of stochastic parameterisations tends to displace blocking activity equatorward. Finally, by comparing seasonal hindcasts with climate runs using the same model, we highlight that the largest contributors to the chronic underestimation of blocking are persistent errors in the atmospheric model. It is also shown that SST errors have a larger impact on blocking bias in climate runs than in seasonal runs, and that increased ocean model resolution contributes to improved blocking more effectively in climate runs. Seasonal forecasts can thus be considered a suitable test‐bed for model development targeting blocking improvement in climate models. Abstract : This article investigates the advancements of atmospheric blocking representation in the seasonal prediction system by ECMWF, as shown by the figure. Blocking representation has improved considerably in the last 10 years and ‐ although significant biases still exist in System5 especially over the European sector ‐ in many regions biases have been halved.