Brazil electricity needs in 2030: Trends and challenges. (March 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Belançon, Marcos Paulo
• Is Part Of: Renewable energy focus. Volume 36(2021)
• Page Start: 89
• Page End: 95
• Publication Date: 2021-03
• Subjects: Solar -- Energy in Brazil -- Sustainability; Renewable energy sources -- Periodicals; Solar energy -- Periodicals; 333.79405
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ref.2021.01.001
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1755-0084

Abstract

Highlights: 20 years of electricity load for the Brazilian grid have been evaluated on hourly basis. Scenarios for the electricity supply in 2030 and its impact in hydropower management were investigated. The results indicate an increased peak hydropower demand, that endure longer. A massive investment in solar water heaters could contribute significantly to the reliability of the national grid. Abstract: The demand for electricity and the need to replace fossil fuels with renewables have been growing steadily, and this transition will have significant implications for our world that are only beginning to be understood. Brazil is one important example of a big economy where the electricity is already supplied by renewables, such as hydro, wind, and biomass-fired thermal power. In this work, we investigated the electricity load curves in the last 20 years in Brazil, and four different scenarios for 2030 are proposed to evaluate the impact of increasing renewables in the national grid, on an hourly basis. The analysis shows that growing electricity demand and the expected reduction in the hydropower share will significantly affect the reliability of the national grid, due to higher peak load and also due to the intermittency of Solar and Wind. Without any gigawatt-scale hydropower projected for the near future, increasing the share of these renewables should push hydropower to operate hundreds of hours every year above typical peak power levels experienced in the past. To avoid or reduce the threat related to this trend one of our scenarios suggests that solar water heaters could be massively deployed in Brazil, which would positively impact the system reliability by reducing the electricity demand mostly at peak loads during early evenings.