Selection of Strategy for Large Group Emergency Decision-making based on Risk Measurement. (April 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Yin, Xuanpeng; Xu, Xuanhua; Pan, Bin
• Is Part Of: Reliability engineering & system safety. Volume 208(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-04
• Subjects: Large group -- Emergency decision -- Risk measurement -- Strategy selection; Reliability (Engineering) -- Periodicals; System safety -- Periodicals; Industrial safety -- Periodicals; Fiabilité -- Périodiques; Sécurité des systèmes -- Périodiques; Sécurité du travail -- Périodiques; 620.00452
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107325
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0951-8320

Abstract

Highlights: A preference representation method for large group emergency decision makers is designed. The group preference fusion rules are given according to the characteristics of large group emergency decision-making strategies. A model of decision risk measurement is proposed. The universal rules of large group emergency decision-making strategies selection are obtained. Abstract: Different strategies can be applied in large group emergency decision-making, including the voting strategy, the delegation strategy, and the averaging strategy, etc. The choice of decision-making strategy not only affects the efficiency but also the accuracy of decision-making. Based on signal detection theory, a preference representation method for large group emergency decision-making is proposed. Combining the characteristics of the strategies, rules for the fusion of group preferences are presented, and a risk measurement model for large group emergency decision-making is constructed. By comparing the decision-making risk degree of each decision-making strategy under different conditions of group perception information breadth and external environment, the universal rules of large group emergency decision-making strategy selection are obtained. The results revealed that there are comparative advantages among decision-making strategies in specific situations, and that reasonable decision-making strategy selection can effectively control decision-making risk. The results provide a scientific reference and basis for guiding strategy selection in large group emergency decision-making.