Spatiotemporal Characteristics of the COVID-19 Epidemic in the United States. (8th July 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Wang, Yun; Liu, Ying; Struthers, James; Lian, Min
• Is Part Of: Clinical infectious diseases. Volume 72:Number 4(2021)
• Page Start: 643
• Page End: 651
• Publication Date: 2020-07-08
• Subjects: COVID-19 -- epidemiology -- geography -- clustering -- spatiotemporal trend; Communicable diseases -- Periodicals; 616.905
• DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciaa934
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1058-4838

Abstract

Abstract: Background: A range of near-real-time online/mobile mapping dashboards and applications have been used to track the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic worldwide; however, small area-based spatiotemporal patterns of COVID-19 in the United States remain unknown. Methods: We obtained county-based counts of COVID-19 cases confirmed in the United States from 22 January to 13 May 2020 (N = 1 386 050). We characterized the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic through detecting weekly hotspots of newly confirmed cases using Spatial and Space-Time Scan Statistics and quantifying the trends of incidence of COVID-19 by county characteristics using the Joinpoint analysis. Results: Along with the national plateau reached in early April, COVID-19 incidence significantly decreased in the Northeast (estimated weekly percentage change [EWPC]: −16.6%) but continued increasing in the Midwest, South, and West (EWPCs: 13.2%, 5.6%, and 5.7%, respectively). Higher risks of clustering and incidence of COVID-19 were consistently observed in metropolitan versus rural counties, counties closest to core airports, the most populous counties, and counties with the highest proportion of racial/ethnic minorities. However, geographic differences in incidence have shrunk since early April, driven by a significant decrease in the incidence in these counties (EWPC range: −2.0%, −4.2%) and a consistent increase in other areas (EWPC range: 1.5–20.3%). Conclusions: To substantially decrease the nationwide incidence of COVID-19, strict social-distancing measures should be continuously implemented, especially in geographic areas with increasing risks, including rural areas. Spatiotemporal characteristics and trends of COVID-19 should be considered in decision making on the timeline of re-opening for states and localities. Abstract : After early April, COVID-19 incidence decreased in metropolitan areas, counties closest to airports, most populous counties, and counties with highest the proportion of racial/ethnic minorities but consistently increased in other areas. Spatiotemporal trends should be considered in decision making on local re-opening.