Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios. Issue 3 (1st March 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Chevuturi, Amulya; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Turner, Andrew G.; Hannah, Shaun
• Is Part Of: Earth's future. Volume 6:Issue 3(2018)
• Page Start: 339
• Page End: 358
• Publication Date: 2018-03-01
• Subjects: Climate Change -- Precipitation -- Temperature -- +1.5{degree sign}C Warming -- Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region -- +2.0{degree sign}C Warming; Environmental sciences -- Periodicals; Environmental sciences; Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000734
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2328-4277

Abstract

Abstract: In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006–2015), over the Asian‐Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more‐frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global‐mean temperature change to 1.5°C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming. Key Points: Mean monsoon precipitation increases over South and East Asia in 1.5°C and 2.0°C scenarios with highly uncertain changes over Australia The frequency and persistence of extremes increase in 1.5°C and 2.0°C over AAMR for temperature and EA and India for precipitation Additional 0.5°C warming increases intensity, frequency and persistence of temperature and precipitation extremes over parts of AAMR