Towards a bifurcated future in the US-China relationship: What is in it for the EU?. (January 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Pop, Adrian; Grigoraș, Răzvan
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 125(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-01
• Subjects: Long cycles -- Trend impact analysis -- Scenario building -- US -- China -- EU; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2020.102634
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Highlights: The long cycles theory can be successfully combined with foresight methods. The Trend Impact Analysis and the Scenario Building are suitable methods for this combination. Drivers, possible events and indexes should be taken into consideration. In the US-China relations both cooperative and confrontational futures are possible. Abstract: By identifying recurring historical patterns, one could extrapolate future developments. However, drivers and possible events could trigger deviations from the extrapolation of historical patterns. Therefore, in order to enhance the value of the long cycles theory for futures studies one has to use appropriate foresight methods, including the Trend Impact Analysis and the Scenario Building. Firstly, this paper identifies eight most important drivers as far as the relationship between the US and China is concerned. Secondly, it quantifies the expected shifts in the distribution of power discussing their expected impact on the relationship between the current dominant power and its main challenger by using four indexes. Thirdly, it puts forward a list of possible events, evaluating their probability of occurrence. Last but not least, it posits three alternative scenarios for the US-China relationship and discusses each of them from the perspective of EU interests. The paper concludes that at present we have a bifurcated future in the US-China relationship, where both cooperative and confrontational futures are possible. It is in the EU's interest to back the US, in order to secure a smoother transition of power and strengthen rather than weaken the transatlantic link.