Projected ecosystem response to the anticipated effects of sea level rise. (December 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ishak, D.S.M.; Abd Wahab, A.K.; Teh, S.Y.; Jamal, M.H.
• Is Part Of: Physics and chemistry of the earth. Volume 120(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-12
• Subjects: Inundation change -- Mangroves -- Zonation pattern; Geophysics -- Periodicals; Geochemistry -- Periodicals; Earth sciences -- Periodicals; Geodesy -- Periodicals; Astrophysics -- Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1016/j.pce.2020.102934
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1474-7065

Abstract

Abstract: The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on a mangrove island ecosystem was investigated by projecting future increase in tidal inundation at the island. The aims of this study is to simulate the potential mangrove response under several conditions of SLR scenarios for the year 2050 and 2100. Processed WordView-2 and IFSAR images were used in the analysis. Segmentation and classification process were conducted using SPRING 5.2 software while inundation was simulated using ArcGIS 9.3. A series of mangrove migration map for 2050 and 2100 SLR scenarios showed an adjustment to tidal inundation classification due to the increased seawater level. Mangroves from the higher zone (Z4) migrated into the lower zone (Z2 and Z3) as a response to SLR. In the worst-case scenario, more than 25% of the mangrove forest is predicted to be permanently submerged due to a 1.3 m sea level rise. The total land loss in the year 2100 was estimated at 73.52ha (Case study 1) and 148.92ha (Case study 2). The worst-case scenarios will possibly lead to the extinction of Xylocarpus moluccensis when Z4 starts to be completely inundated during the 2050 SLR projection. In conclusion, the findings showed that the tolerance to seawater inundation of different mangrove species determines its responses and migration pattern. Highlights: A series of mangrove migration map for the years 2050 and 2100 SLR was developed. Mangroves from the higher zone (Z4) migrated to the lower zones (Z2 and Z3) as a response to SLR. Over 25% of the mangrove forest is projected to be permanently submerged due to the worst sea level rise of 1.3 m in 2100. Total land loss in the year 2100 was estimated at 73.52ha for Case 1 and 148.92ha Case 2. The worst-case scenario leads to the extinction of Xylocarpus moluccensis when Z4 is completely inundated in year 2050.