Dogger Bank: Weighing the fog of war. Issue 3 (June 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: MacKay, Niall; Price, Chris; Wood, Jamie
• Is Part Of: Significance. Volume 14:Issue 3(2017)
• Page Start: 14
• Page End: 19
• Publication Date: 2017-06
• Subjects: Statistics -- Periodicals; Social sciences -- Periodicals; 001.422
• DOI: 10.1111/j.1740-9713.2017.01034.x
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1740-9705

Abstract

Abstract : Historical outcomes were at one time only possibilities – but how do we distinguish probable real events from improbable ones? Niall MacKay, Chris Price and Jamie Wood use a naval battle of the First World War to explain how Bayesian thinking helps historians reason with the uncertainties of the past Abstract : Historical outcomes were at one time only possibilities – but how do we distinguish probable real events from improbable ones? Niall MacKay, Chris Price and Jamie Wood use a naval battle of the First World War to explain how Bayesian thinking helps historians reason with the uncertainties of the past.