Uncertainty-based decision-making in fire safety: Analyzing the alternatives. (November 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Cadena, Jaime E.; Osorio, Andres F.; Torero, Jose L.; Reniers, Genserik; Lange, David
• Is Part Of: Journal of loss prevention in the process industries. Volume 68(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-11
• Subjects: Fire risk -- Fire safety engineering -- Risk assessment -- Uncertainties -- Uncertainty analysis; Chemical industries -- Safety measures -- Periodicals; 660.2804
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jlp.2020.104288
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0950-4230

Abstract

Abstract: Large accidents throughout the 20th century marked the development of safety fields in engineering, devoted to better identify hazards, understand risks and properly manage them. As these fields evolved rather quickly and moved from a compliance to a risk-based approach, a significant delay in this transition was experienced in fire safety engineering (FSE). Devastating fires well into the 21st century and the restrictive nature of prescriptive codes signaled the need to transition towards a performance-based one. A performance-based approach provides flexibility and capitalizes on learning from accidental events and engineering disciplines such as process safety and FSE. This work provides an overview of the main alternatives to account for uncertainty in safety studies within the context of FSE, including traditional probabilistic analyses and emerging approaches such as strength of knowledge. A simple example is used to illustrate the impact of the uncertainty analysis on the results of a simple fire safety assessment. A structured evaluation is performed on each alternative to assess its ease of implementation and communication. The outcome is a compendium of advantages and disadvantages of the alternatives that constitute a toolbox for fire safety engineers to configure and use within their fire risk assessments. Process safety engineers are expected to gain an understanding of the similar and important challenges of FSE, being it directly relevant for process risk management and fire risk management in administrative buildings. Highlights: Risk assessments are challenged by uncertainty sources and the ability to describe their effect. Fire safety engineering uses probabilistic assessments to demonstrate acceptable risk in high risk and complex building designs. The complexity of fire and its interaction with the building does not allow a probabilistic approach to convey all the uncertainty involved. A wide range of uncertainty analysis alternatives in risk assessment are explored and evaluated using a structured methodology. A discussion with both process and fire safety practitioners identified opportunities and further challenges of uncertainty analysis.