Switching volatility in a nonlinear open economy. (February 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Benchimol, Jonathan; Ivashchenko, Sergey
• Is Part Of: Journal of international money and finance. Volume 110(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-02
• Subjects: C61 -- E32 -- F21 -- F41; DSGE -- Volatility Shocks -- Markov switching -- Open economy -- Financial crisis -- Nonlinearities; International finance -- Periodicals; Foreign exchange -- Periodicals; Finances internationales -- Périodiques; Change -- Périodiques; Foreign exchange; International finance; Periodicals; 332.04205
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102287
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0261-5606

Abstract

Abstract: Uncertainty about an economy's regime can change drastically around a crisis. An imported crisis such as the global financial crisis in the euro area highlights the effect of foreign shocks. Estimating an open-economy nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the euro area and the United States including Markov-switching volatility shocks, we show that these shocks were significant during the global financial crisis compared with periods of calm. We describe how US shocks from both the real economy and financial markets affected the euro area economy and how bond reallocation occurred between short- and long-term maturities during the global financial crisis. Importantly, the estimated nonlinearities when domestic and foreign financial markets influence the economy, should not be neglected. The nonlinear behavior of market-related variables highlights the importance of higher-order estimation for providing additional interpretations to policymakers.