A spatiotemporal analysis of oil spill severity using a multi-criteria decision framework. (1st January 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Nelson, Jake R.; Grubesic, Tony H.
• Is Part Of: Ocean & coastal management. Volume 199(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-01-01
• Subjects: Oil spill response -- TOPSIS -- Oil spill modeling -- Worst case discharge -- Comparative method; Marine resources -- Management -- Periodicals; Coastal zone management -- Periodicals; Coastal ecology -- Periodicals; Ressources marines -- Périodiques; Littoral -- Aménagement -- Périodiques; Écologie littorale -- Périodiques; Coastal ecology; Coastal zone management; Marine resources -- Management; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 551.46
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2020.105410
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0964-5691

Abstract

Abstract: The evaluation of oil spills and their coastal impacts remains a fundamental scientific challenge. This includes the prediction and subsequent evaluation of environmental damage caused by the spills, the development of impact mitigation and cleanup tactics, as well as community preparedness strategies. Much of the recent scientific research in this domain leverages case studies based on spill simulations to demonstrate the effectiveness of the predictive models and methods and their implications for community response. Although many of these studies provide a good snapshot of anticipated consequences of an oil spill at a singular moment in time and in a specific place – the need to evaluate changes in impact at different times and locations remains a fundamental aspect for response policy and contingency planning. The purpose of this paper is to improve the fidelity of spill evaluations, response, and preparedness by using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solutions (TOPSIS) method. In short, TOPSIS is used to rank and compare the spatiotemporal dynamics of spill impacts. It also provides a means for evaluating worst case discharge scenarios. The results of this work can help inform response preparedness by highlighting the geographic and seasonal nuances of potential spill impacts while also detailing an objective approach to ranking oil spill severity. Graphical abstract: Image 1 Highlights: 36 oil spills are simulated at different times and locations in the Gulf of Mexico. A novel set of severity metrics are calculated for each scenario. TOPSIS is employed to rank order spills by severity. The most severe spills across all locations is expected in early spring and summer. Results provide support for identifying worst case discharge scenarios.