Canadian initial-condition climate ensemble: Hygrothermal simulation on wood-stud and retrofitted historical masonry. (January 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Vandemeulebroucke, I.; Defo, M.; Lacasse, M.A.; Caluwaerts, S.; Van Den Bossche, N.
• Is Part Of: Building and environment. Volume 187(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-01
• Subjects: Climate ensemble -- Climate change -- Hygrothermal simulation -- Brick-clad wood-stud -- Historical masonry; Buildings -- Environmental engineering -- Periodicals; Building -- Research -- Periodicals; Constructions -- Technique de l'environnement -- Périodiques; Electronic journals; 696
• DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2020.107318
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0360-1323

Abstract

Abstract: Given the long lifespan of buildings it becomes inevitable to assess the impact of climate change when designing building envelopes or retrofitting solutions. Hygrothermal simulations would benefit from using a climate ensemble to account for the large uncertainties that come with modelled climate data. However, this has been rarely done so far, and no state-of-the-art methodology exists to implement ensemble data in hygrothermal simulations. This paper presents the application of a Canadian initial-condition ensemble CanRCM4 LE in hygrothermal (HAM) modelling. A brick-clad wood-stud wall assembly and historical solid masonry wall, before and after retrofitting, are analysed for Ottawa, CA. Variations in the HAM model are studied to evaluate whether the ensemble can be represented by one smaller "reduced" ensemble for different studies. And, the potential of climate-based indices to predict this "reduced" ensemble is studied. Further, the uncertainty of the ensemble is analysed, as well as the climate change signal of the damage functions. It is found that the application of a climate ensemble is highly valuable for HAM modelling, as it is able to account for the high uncertainty of climate change data. To maintain the level of information, it is recommended to perform HAM simulations using the entire ensemble. However, there is potential to select a "reduced" ensemble to represent spread of the climate change signal. Highlights: Hygrothermal analysis benefits from climate ensemble data in numerical simulations. Using entire ensemble recommended for hygrothermal studies on climate change. Large uncertainty on hygrothermal behaviour of walls for initial-condition ensemble. Reduced ensembles can represent the climate change signal of mould damage in walls. Future freeze-thaw damage in masonry is difficult to predict; orientation dependent.