What If the Influenza Vaccine Did Not Offer Such Variable Protection?. (9th May 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Bartsch, Sarah M; Mitgang, Elizabeth A; Geller, Gail; Cox, Sarah N; O'Shea, Kelly J; Boyce, Angie; Siegmund, Sheryl S; Kahn, Jeffrey; Lee, Bruce Y
• Is Part Of: Journal of infectious diseases. Volume 222:Number 7(2020)
• Page Start: 1138
• Page End: 1144
• Publication Date: 2020-05-09
• Subjects: vaccination -- tailoring -- efficacy -- influenza -- model; Communicable diseases -- Periodicals; Diseases -- Causes and theories of causation -- Periodicals; Medicine -- Periodicals; Communicable Diseases -- Periodicals; Electronic journals; 616.9
• DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiaa240
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0022-1899

Abstract

Abstract: Background: The protection that an influenza vaccine offers can vary significantly from person to person due to differences in immune systems, body types, and other factors. The question, then, is what is the value of efforts to reduce this variability such as making vaccines more personalized and tailored to individuals. Methods: We developed a compartment model of the United States to simulate different influenza seasons and the impact of reducing the variability in responses to the influenza vaccine across the population. Results: Going from a vaccine that varied in efficacy (0–30%) to one that had a uniform 30% efficacy for everyone averted 16.0–31.2 million cases, $1.9–$3.6 billion in direct medical costs, and $16.1–$42.7 billion in productivity losses. Going from 0–50% in efficacy to just 50% for everyone averted 27.7–38.6 million cases, $3.3–$4.6 billion in direct medical costs, and $28.8–$57.4 billion in productivity losses. Going from 0–70% to 70% averted 33.6–54.1 million cases, $4.0–$6.5 billion in direct medical costs, and $44.8–$64.7 billion in productivity losses. Conclusions: This study quantifies for policy makers, funders, and vaccine developers and manufacturers the potential impact of efforts to reduce variability in the protection that influenza vaccines offer (eg, developing vaccines that are more personalized to different individual factors). Abstract : Our study quantifies the potential benefits and cost savings of reducing variability in the influenza vaccine efficacy. Even a slight reduction in variability can avert > 5.0 million cases, $609.8 million in direct healthcare costs, and > $10.7 billion in productivity losses annually.