Negligible risk of the COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in China (outside Hubei): a statistical probability study. (27th March 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zhao, Kedong; Long, Cheng; Wang, Yan; Zeng, Tieyong; Fu, Xinmiao
• Is Part Of: Journal of public health. Volume 42:Number 3(2020:Sep.)
• Page Start: 651
• Page End: 652
• Publication Date: 2020-03-27
• Subjects: coronavirus -- COVID-19 -- COVID-19 resurgence -- risk assessment -- SARS-CoV-2 -- work resuming; Public health -- Periodicals; Public health -- Great Britain -- Periodicals; Medical policy -- Periodicals; Medical policy -- Great Britain -- Periodicals; 362.1
• DOI: 10.1093/pubmed/fdaa046
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1741-3842

Abstract

Abstract: The COVID-19 outbreak in China appears to reach the late stage since late March 2020, and a stepwise restoration of economic operations is implemented. Risk assessment for such economic restoration is of significance. Here, we estimated the probability of COVID-19 resurgence caused by work resuming in typical provinces/cities and found that such probability is very limited (<5% for all the regions except Beijing). Our work may inform provincial governments to make risk level-based, differentiated control measures.