Global CO2 emissions and global temperatures: Are they related. (15th April 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gil‐Alana, Luis A.; Monge, Manuel
• Is Part Of: International journal of climatology. Volume 40:Number 15(2020)
• Page Start: 6603
• Page End: 6611
• Publication Date: 2020-04-15
• Subjects: fractional integration -- global emissions -- global temperatures -- long memory; Climatology -- Periodicals; Climat -- Périodiques; Climatologie -- Périodiques; 551.605
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.6601
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0899-8418

Abstract

Abstract: This paper deals with the analysis of the relationship between CO2 emissions and temperatures. For this purpose, global CO2 emissions and four measures of global temperatures (land, land and ocean, northern and southern temperatures) are used. We used techniques based on fractional integration and cointegration. The results indicate first that the orders of integration differ in the two variables. Thus, while emissions are I(1) or I(d) with d higher than 1, temperatures display orders of integration strictly smaller than 1 and thus invalidating the hypothesis of cointegration between the two variables. Due to this, another approach is conducted where we suppose that the emissions are weakly exogenous in relation to the temperatures. The results using this approach show a significantly positive relationship between the two variables with a long memory pattern. Abstract : The paper deals with the relationship between global CO2 emissions and global temperatures. Fractional integration and cointegration methods are used. The results indicate that the orders of integration substantially differ in the two variables. Nevertheless, a significantly positive relationship between the two variables with a long memory pattern is observed.