On unified framework for discrete-time grey models: Extensions and applications. (December 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Wei, Baolei; Xie, Naiming
• Is Part Of: ISA transactions. Volume 107(2021)
• Page Start: 1
• Page End: 11
• Publication Date: 2020-12
• Subjects: Grey system model -- discrete-time grey model -- recursive extrapolation -- indirect measurement; Engineering instruments -- Periodicals; Engineering instruments; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 629.805
• DOI: 10.1016/j.isatra.2020.07.017
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0019-0578

Abstract

Abstract: Grey theory-based time series models are widely used in various fields and disciplines. While most of the research is focused on the development and improvement of novel discrete-time models, very limited attention has been paid to the relationships among diverse models. The current paper proposes a methodological and practical framework to unify the single-variable, multi-variable, and multi-output discrete-time grey models, making it easier for practitioners to select an appropriate model for a given time-series forecasting problem. The recursive extrapolation strategy is present to generate multi-step ahead forecasts and four model families are deduced within the universal framework. Large-scale simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the finite-sample fitting and multi-step ahead forecasting performance. The proposed approach is illustrated using application examples from the indirect measurement of the tensile strength of materials. Highlights: A universal framework is developed to unify the discrete-time grey models. Four model families are induced within the unified framework. Recursive extrapolation strategy is proposed to generate multi-step ahead forecasts. Large-scale simulations are conducted to evaluate the finite-sample performance. Indirect measurement of the tensile strength of four materials is inferred from the Brinell hardness of the materials.