Modeling epidemics through ladder operators. (November 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Bagarello, F.; Gargano, F.; Roccati, F.
• Is Part Of: Chaos, solitons and fractals. Volume 140(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-11
• Subjects: Chaotic behavior in systems -- Periodicals; Solitons -- Periodicals; Fractals -- Periodicals; Chaotic behavior in systems; Fractals; Solitons; Periodicals; 003.7
• DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110193
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0960-0779

Abstract

Highlights: We propose an operatorial model to describe epidemics. The model describes well the asymptotic numbers of the epidemics. Ladder operators are used to model exchanges between the "actors" of the system. Abstract: We propose a simple model of spreading of some infection in an originally healthy population which is different from other models existing in the literature. In particular, we use an operator technique which allows us to describe in a natural way the possible interactions between healthy and un-healthy populations, and their transformation into recovered and to dead people. After a rather general discussion, we apply our method to the analysis of Chinese data for the SARS-2003 (Severe acute respiratory syndrome; SARS-CoV-1) and the Coronavirus COVID-19 (Corona Virus Disease; SARS-CoV-2) and we show that the model works very well in reproducing the long-time behaviour of the disease, and in particular in finding the number of affected and dead people in the limit of large time. Moreover, we show how the model can be easily modified to consider some lockdown measure, and we deduce that this procedure drastically reduces the asymptotic value of infected individuals, as expected, and observed in real life.