A minimal model of hospital patients' dynamics in COVID-19. (November 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Papo, David; Righetti, Marco; Fadiga, Luciano; Biscarini, Fabio; Zanin, Massimiliano
• Is Part Of: Chaos, solitons and fractals. Volume 140(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-11
• Subjects: COVID-19 -- Discrete-time model -- Patients' dynamics; Chaotic behavior in systems -- Periodicals; Solitons -- Periodicals; Fractals -- Periodicals; Chaotic behavior in systems; Fractals; Solitons; Periodicals; 003.7
• DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110157
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0960-0779

Abstract

Highlights: The region-specific modulation of COVID-19 dynamicsis characterised with a reduced exponential model leveraging available data on sub-intensive and intensive care unit patientsmade available by all regional councils from the very onset of the disease. This simple model provides a rather good fit of regional patient dynamics, particularly for regions where the affected population was large, highlightingimportant region-specific patterns of epidemic dynamics. Abstract: Italy has been one of the countries hardest hit by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. While the overall policy in response to the epidemic was to a large degree centralised, the regional basis of the healthcare system represented an important factor affecting the natural dynamics of the disease induced geographic specificities. Here, we characterise the region-specific modulation of COVID dynamics with a reduced exponential model leveraging available data on sub-intensive and intensive care unit patients made available by all regional councils from the very onset of the disease. This simple model provides a rather good fit of regional patient dynamics, particularly for regions where the affected population was large, highlighting important region-specific patterns of epidemic dynamics.