Are low LRs reliable?. (November 2020)
- Record Type:
- Journal Article
- Title:
- Are low LRs reliable?. (November 2020)
- Main Title:
- Are low LRs reliable?
- Authors:
- Buckleton, John S.
Pugh, Simone N.
Bright, Jo-Anne
Taylor, Duncan A.
Curran, James M.
Kruijver, Maarten
Gill, Peter
Budowle, Bruce
Cheng, Kevin - Abstract:
- Highlights: DNA mixtures with at least one low LR are examined. Large scale tests of false donors are undertaken. The rate of inclusion of false donors is less than predicted by Turing's rule. Abstract: To answer the question "Are low likelihood ratios reliable?" requires both a definition of reliable and then a test of whether low likelihood ratios ( LR s) meet that definition. We offer, from a purely statistical standpoint, that reliability can be determined by assessing whether the rate of inclusionary support for non-donors over many cases is not larger than expected from the LR value. Thus, it is not the magnitude of the LR alone that determines reliability. Turing's rule is used to inform the expected rate of non-donor inclusionary support, where the rate of non-donor inclusionary support is at most the reciprocal of the LR, i.e. Pr( LR > x | Ha ) ≤1/ x . There are parallel concerns about whether the value of the evidence can be communicated. We do not discuss that in depth here although it is an important consideration to be addressed with training. In this paper, we use a mixture of real and simulated data to show that the rate of non-donor inclusionary support for these data is significantly lower than the upper bound given by Turing's rule. We take this as strong evidence that low LR s are reliable.
- Is Part Of:
- Forensic science international. Volume 49(2020)
- Journal:
- Forensic science international
- Issue:
- Volume 49(2020)
- Issue Display:
- Volume 49, Issue 2020 (2020)
- Year:
- 2020
- Volume:
- 49
- Issue:
- 2020
- Issue Sort Value:
- 2020-0049-2020-0000
- Page Start:
- Page End:
- Publication Date:
- 2020-11
- Subjects:
- Forensic DNA -- Probabilistic genotyping -- STRmix -- Likelihood ratio
Forensic genetics -- Periodicals
Génétique légale -- Périodiques
Forensic genetics
Electronic journals
Periodicals
614.1 - Journal URLs:
- http://www.clinicalkey.com.au/dura/browse/journalIssue/18724973 ↗
http://www.clinicalkey.com/dura/browse/journalIssue/18724973 ↗
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/18724973 ↗
http://www.elsevier.com/journals ↗ - DOI:
- 10.1016/j.fsigen.2020.102350 ↗
- Languages:
- English
- ISSNs:
- 1872-4973
- Deposit Type:
- Legaldeposit
- View Content:
- Available online (eLD content is only available in our Reading Rooms) ↗
- Physical Locations:
- British Library DSC - 3987.764050
British Library DSC - BLDSS-3PM
British Library HMNTS - ELD Digital store - Ingest File:
- 14848.xml