What life-course research can contribute to futures studies. (December 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Komp-Leukkunen, Kathrin
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 124(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-12
• Subjects: futures studies -- life-course -- theory -- research methods -- types of uncertainty; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2020.102651
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Highlights: Life-course research informs futures studies because it explore how the lives of individuals develop over time. Life-course research suggests utilizing life-events, social institutions, and personality to explore futures. Life-course research suggests that futures studies consider diversity: between individuals, across countries, and over time. Each type of uncertainty about the future holds characteristic assumptions about inequalities and life-courses developments. Abstract: Futures studies is a multidisciplinary field that integrates disciplinary information through discussion. This article integrates information from life-course research with futures studies. Life-course research explores how human lives develop over time, focusing on the past and present. Futures studies may use this information to explore possible, probable, and preferable future developments of human lives. Life-course research defines a stable social context and standardized life-courses as a requirement for futures studies under shallow uncertainty. In this situation, important experiences in a person's life and social institutions create life-course patterns that may inform deterministic forecasts. Futures studies under medium uncertainty may be carried out when life-courses change gradually over time or when similar countries are compared. Here, personality also creates life-course patterns that may inform probabilistic forecasts. When social contexts change fundamentally or unexpectedly, then futures studies under deep uncertainty are called for. In this situation, important events, social institutions, and personality may inform foresight on future life-course patterns. Finally, futures studies under recognized ignorance may use previous life-course research for inspiration. These insights contribute to cumulative knowledge building, and they underline the opportunities and limitations of futures studies.