The six scenario archetypes framework: A systematic investigation of science fiction films set in the future. (December 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Fergnani, Alessandro; Song, Zhaoli
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 124(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-12
• Subjects: Scenario archetype -- Scenario planning -- Method -- Transformative -- Science fiction -- Crisis; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2020.102645
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Graphical abstract: Highlights: We propose a new scenario archetypes framework generated from an investigation of science fiction films set in the future. The framework is made of six archetypes, all of which involve critical conditions in the external environment. The framework is more transformational and nuanced than previous scenario archetypes frameworks. We explain how the framework can be used in organizational foresight to grow resilient to crises. We present and discuss a case study of the application of the six archetypes method in practice. Abstract: We propose a new scenario archetypes method generated by extracting a set of archetypal images of the future from a sample of 140 science fiction films set in the future using a grounded theory analytical procedure. Six archetypes emerged from the data, and were named Growth & Decay, Threats & New Hopes, Wasteworlds, The Powers that Be, Disarray, and Inversion . The archetypes in part overlap with and confirm previous research, and in part are novel. They all involve stress-point critical conditions in the external environment. We explain why the six archetypes, as a foresight framework, is more transformational and nuanced than previously developed scenario archetypes frameworks, making it particularly suited to the current necessity to think the unthinkable more systematically. We explain how the six archetypes framework can be used as predetermined images of the future to create domain specific scenarios, making organizations more resilient to critical, disruptive futures. We finally present and discuss a case study of the application of the method to create scenarios of post-Covid-19 futures of work. A video abstract of the article is available here: (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q82_X7fN_XA )