Risk assessment savvy: The imperative of appreciating accuracy and outcome. (28th March 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hester, Rhys
• Other Names: Slobogin Christopher guestEditor.
• Is Part Of: Behavioral sciences & the law. Volume 38:Number 3(2020)
• Page Start: 246
• Page End: 258
• Publication Date: 2020-03-28
• Subjects: Mental health laws -- United States -- Periodicals; Psychology, Forensic -- Periodicals; 347.3044405
• DOI: 10.1002/bsl.2457
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0735-3936

Abstract

Abstract : This article focuses on two aspects of actuarial risk at sentencing, the accuracy of the instrument and the outcome it predicts. For theoretical reasons rooted in the cognitive decision‐making and sentencing literature, there is a danger that judges and other practitioners might come to overly rely on a "high risk" label or designation without appreciating the accuracy of the prediction or the actual outcome being predicted. Using sentencing and recidivism data from Pennsylvania ( n = 10, 000), two simple risk instruments are constructed to illustrate the critical importance of understanding accuracy and outcome before relying on the risk tool information.