Evolution-based CO2 emission baseline scenarios of Chinese cities in 2025. (1st January 2021)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Cui, Can; Wang, Zhen; Cai, Bofeng; Peng, Sha; Wang, Yang; Xu, Chengdong
• Is Part Of: Applied energy. Volume 281(2021)
• Publication Date: 2021-01-01
• Subjects: Emission scenario -- City evolution -- CO2 emissions -- Chinese cities -- Low-carbon development; Power (Mechanics) -- Periodicals; Energy conservation -- Periodicals; Energy conversion -- Periodicals; 621.042
• DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.116116
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0306-2619

Abstract

Highlights: Evolution-based City Emission Scenario (ECES) was built to track evolution pattern. ECES used probability methods based on cities' emissions of different periods. ECES divided cities into five clusters to analyze the evolution. City evolution chains reflected the common pattern of city development. Two indicators for intensity estimation in evolution scenario was proposed. Abstract: City-level CO2 emission scenarios are important for cities' policies of emission reduction. However, current studies do not reveal the macro patterns of the evolution of cities. This work uses the evolution-based city emission scenario (ECES) model, which tracks the city evolution patterns by probability methods based on multiple cities' emissions of different periods, to reveal the underlying evolution rules of cities' CO2 emissions. By the K-means clustering method, five clusters of cities are divided, and the evolution patterns of the city clusters are analyzed. Based on the maximum evolution probability, we discover the city evolution chains that reflect the common pattern of city development. We also propose two indicators for the estimation of emission intensity in 2025 in the natural evolution scenario. Policy implications are then discussed, including optimizing the low-carbon development pathway of cities, cooperate with similar cities.