Does choice of drought index influence estimates of drought-induced rice losses in India?. (3rd October 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Fontes, Francisco; Gorst, Ashley; Palmer, Charles
• Is Part Of: Environment and development economics. Volume 25:Number 5(2020)
• Page Start: 459
• Page End: 481
• Publication Date: 2020-10-03
• Subjects: agriculture, -- climate, -- drought, -- India, -- rainfall, -- rice, -- temperature; Q10, -- Q19, -- Q54, -- Q56; Economic development -- Environmental aspects; 330.9
• DOI: 10.1017/S1355770X2000011X
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1355-770X

Abstract

Abstract: Drought events have critical impacts on agricultural production yet there is little consensus on how these should be measured and defined, with implications for drought research and policy. We develop a flexible rainfall-temperature drought index that captures all dry events and we classify these as Type 1 (above-average cooling degree days) and Type 2 droughts (below-average cooling degree days). Applied to a panel dataset of Indian districts over 1966–2009, Type 2 droughts are found to have negative marginal impacts comparable to those of Type 1 droughts. Irrigation more effectively reduces Type 2 drought-induced yield losses than Type 1 yield losses. Over time, Type 1 drought losses have declined while Type 2 losses have risen. Estimates of average yield losses due to Type 1 droughts are reduced by up to 27 per cent when Type 2 droughts are omitted. The associated ex-post economic costs in terms of rice production are underestimated by up to 124 per cent.