A Study of an Industrialization Strategy for China's Upper-Middle Income Stage. (3rd July 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Qunhui, Huang; Yanghua, Huang; Jun, He
• Is Part Of: Social sciences in China. Volume 40:Number 3(2019)
• Page Start: 22
• Page End: 43
• Publication Date: 2019-07-03
• Subjects: middle-income trap -- premature deindustrialization -- productivity -- East Asian experience; 中等收入陷阱 -- 过早去工业化 -- 生产效率 -- 东亚经验; China -- Economic conditions -- Periodicals; China -- Social conditions -- Periodicals; China -- Politics and government -- Periodicals; 300.951
• DOI: 10.1080/02529203.2019.1639955
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0252-9203

Abstract

Abstract : When the high-income East Asian economies entered the upper-middle income stage, their long-term growth was sustained by their real manufacturing output share and total factor productivity (TFP). This is a typical pattern that is highly consistent with classical development economics, which sees manufacturing as the engine of economic growth. When China became a middle-income country, its share of real manufacturing output and TFP both fell over the same period, exhibiting a theoretical and empirical tendency toward "premature deindustrialization" that increases the risk of being caught in the middle-income trap. Accelerating China's development as a manufacturing power, advancing high-tech manufacturing and improving the quality and efficiency of traditional industries are realistic options for the country's industrial development strategy.