Projecting line-haul truck technology adoption: How heterogeneity among fleets impacts system-wide adoption. (April 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Guerrero de la Peña, Ana; Davendralingam, Navindran; Raz, Ali K.; DeLaurentis, Daniel; Shaver, Gregory; Sujan, Vivek; Jain, Neera
• Is Part Of: Transportation research. Volume 124(2019)
• Page Start: 108
• Page End: 127
• Publication Date: 2019-04
• Subjects: Freight transportation -- Technology adoption prediction -- System-of-systems -- Emerging technologies -- Class 8 trucks; Logistics -- Periodicals; Transportation -- Periodicals; 388.011
• DOI: 10.1016/j.tre.2018.12.017
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1366-5545

Abstract

Abstract: A System-of-Systems engineering methodology is used to project truck technology adoption behaviors of heterogeneous fleets operating over the U.S. line-haul freight transportation system. A constrained mixed-integer linear program is formulated to optimize total cost of ownership of regional fleets given vehicle highway performance, fleet operations, cost of energy, and freight demand. A design-of-experiments demonstrates adoption sensitivity to economic parameters and individual fleet management constraints. Validation results demonstrate the importance of modeling fleet heterogeneity to achieving 90% prediction accuracy of historical adoption of three different vehicle architectures across 12 representative fleets over a 11-year period.