Mobility impacts of early forms of automated driving – A system dynamic approach. (December 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Puylaert, S.; Snelder, M.; van Nes, R.; van Arem, B.
• Is Part Of: Transport policy. Volume 72(2018)
• Page Start: 171
• Page End: 179
• Publication Date: 2018-12
• Subjects: Automated vehicles -- Large scale effects -- Mobility effects -- Self-driving cars -- System dynamics; Transportation and state -- Periodicals; Transportation -- Rates -- Periodicals; 388
• DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2018.02.013
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0967-070X

Abstract

Abstract: Modern cars are increasingly being equipped with automated driving functions. For governments it is important to gain insight in the mobility impacts of automated vehicles. This is important as the introduction of automated vehicles affects current investment decisions about infrastructure projects and other policy measures like road pricing. Quantitative literature with respect to the impact of automated vehicles focuses mostly on capacity implications. Literature about large scale mobility impacts is mainly qualitative. This paper introduces a System Dynamics model (SD-model) to quantitatively explore the impacts of early forms of automated vehicles (level 1, 2 and 3) on mobility. The model is explorative and can be used to evaluate different scenarios in a short time. This model is applied in a case study for the Netherlands to assess the impact of automated vehicles on mode choice, time of day choice and travel times on characteristic relations in the Netherlands. In contrast to other studies the SD-model is able to simulate the effects of AVs over time, can simulate mixed automated vehicle types and has a constant feedback between the assignment and the demand side of the model. A scenario for autonomous driving and a scenario for cooperative driving is considered. The simulations show that car traffic will increase and the level of congestion does not necessarily decrease and might even increase on some relations, especially in the autonomous scenario. Furthermore, in the cooperative scenario the increase in number of trips by car is larger, the average speeds are higher and there is less congestion compared to the autonomous scenario. Highlights: Explorative model which gives insight in the largest uncertainties of the mobility impacts of automated vehicles. A method to simulate effects of automated vehicles in macroscopic models. Year-to-year simulation with increasing penetration rates of automated vehicles. Uncertainties considered with respect to penetration rates, impact on capacity and impact on value of time. A case study for the Netherlands.