Cost and risk assessment for spacecraft operation decisions caused by the space debris environment. (August 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Schaub, Hanspeter; Jasper, Lee E.Z.; Anderson, Paul V.; McKnight, Darren S.
• Is Part Of: Acta astronautica. Volume 113(2015)
• Page Start: 66
• Page End: 79
• Publication Date: 2015-08
• Subjects: Space debris -- Debris mitigation; Astronautics -- Periodicals; Outer space -- Exploration -- Periodicals; Astronautics; Periodicals; 629.405
• DOI: 10.1016/j.actaastro.2015.03.028
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0094-5765

Abstract

Abstract: Space debris is a topic of concern among many in the space community. Most forecasting analyses look centuries into the future to attempt to predict how severe debris densities and fluxes will become in orbit regimes of interest. Conversely, space operators currently do not treat space debris as a major mission hazard. This survey paper outlines the range of cost and risk evaluations a space operator must consider when determining a debris-related response. Beyond the typical direct costs of performing an avoidance maneuver, the total cost including indirect costs, political costs and space environmental costs are discussed. The weights on these costs can vary drastically across mission types and orbit regimes flown. The operator response options during a mission are grouped into four categories: no action, perform debris dodging, follow stricter mitigation, and employ ADR. Current space operations are only considering the no action and debris dodging options, but increasing debris risk will eventually force the stricter mitigation and ADR options. Debris response equilibria where debris-related risks and costs settle on a steady-state solution are hypothesized. Abstract : Highlights: Provides a comprehensive space debris cost function. Considers direct-, indirect-, political-, and space environment costs. Details each cost category with historical references. Discusses operators point of view of space debris concerns. Discusses options to address grown space debris costs.