A comparison of conditional predictive ability of implied volatility and realized measures in forecasting volatility. (6th March 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Shi, Yafeng; Ying, Tingting; Shi, Yanlong; Ai, Chunrong
• Is Part Of: Journal of forecasting. Volume 39:Number 7(2020)
• Page Start: 1025
• Page End: 1034
• Publication Date: 2020-03-06
• Subjects: conditional predictive ability -- forecasting competitions -- implied volatility -- realized volatility -- volatility forecasts; Forecasting -- Periodicals; Forecasting -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals; 003.2
• DOI: 10.1002/for.2666
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0277-6693

Abstract

Abstract: In a conditional predictive ability test framework, we investigate whether market factors influence the relative conditional predictive ability of realized measures (RMs) and implied volatility (IV), which is able to examine the asynchronism in their forecasting accuracy, and further analyze their unconditional forecasting performance for volatility forecast. Our results show that the asynchronism can be detected significantly and is strongly related to certain market factors, and the comparison between RMs and IV on average forecast performance is more efficient than previous studies. Finally, we use the factors to extend the empirical similarity (ES) approach for combination of forecasts derived from RMs and IV.