The forgotten drought of 1765–1768: Reconstructing and re‐evaluating historical droughts in the British and Irish Isles. (25th February 2020)
- Record Type:
- Journal Article
- Title:
- The forgotten drought of 1765–1768: Reconstructing and re‐evaluating historical droughts in the British and Irish Isles. (25th February 2020)
- Main Title:
- The forgotten drought of 1765–1768: Reconstructing and re‐evaluating historical droughts in the British and Irish Isles
- Authors:
- Murphy, Conor
Wilby, Robert L.
Matthews, Tom
Horvath, Csaba
Crampsie, Arlene
Ludlow, Francis
Noone, Simon
Brannigan, Jordan
Hannaford, Jamie
McLeman, Robert
Jobbova, Eva - Abstract:
- Abstract: Historical precipitation records are fundamental for the management of water resources, yet rainfall observations typically span 100–150 years at most, with considerable uncertainties surrounding earlier records. Here, we analyse some of the longest available precipitation records globally, for England and Wales, Scotland and Ireland. To assess the credibility of these records and extend them further back in time, we statistically reconstruct (using independent predictors) monthly precipitation series representing these regions for the period 1748–2000. By applying the Standardized Precipitation Index at 12‐month accumulations (SPI‐12) to the observed and our reconstructed series we re‐evaluate historical meteorological droughts. We find strong agreement between observed and reconstructed drought chronologies in post‐1870 records, but divergence in earlier series due to biases in early precipitation observations. Hence, the 1800s decade was less drought prone in our reconstructions relative to observations. Overall, the drought of 1834–1836 was the most intense SPI‐12 event in our reconstruction for England and Wales. Newspaper accounts and documentary sources confirm the extent of impacts across England in particular. We also identify a major, "forgotten" drought in 1765–1768 that affected the British‐Irish Isles. This was the most intense event in our reconstructions for Ireland and Scotland, and ranks first for accumulated deficits across all three regionalAbstract: Historical precipitation records are fundamental for the management of water resources, yet rainfall observations typically span 100–150 years at most, with considerable uncertainties surrounding earlier records. Here, we analyse some of the longest available precipitation records globally, for England and Wales, Scotland and Ireland. To assess the credibility of these records and extend them further back in time, we statistically reconstruct (using independent predictors) monthly precipitation series representing these regions for the period 1748–2000. By applying the Standardized Precipitation Index at 12‐month accumulations (SPI‐12) to the observed and our reconstructed series we re‐evaluate historical meteorological droughts. We find strong agreement between observed and reconstructed drought chronologies in post‐1870 records, but divergence in earlier series due to biases in early precipitation observations. Hence, the 1800s decade was less drought prone in our reconstructions relative to observations. Overall, the drought of 1834–1836 was the most intense SPI‐12 event in our reconstruction for England and Wales. Newspaper accounts and documentary sources confirm the extent of impacts across England in particular. We also identify a major, "forgotten" drought in 1765–1768 that affected the British‐Irish Isles. This was the most intense event in our reconstructions for Ireland and Scotland, and ranks first for accumulated deficits across all three regional series. Moreover, the 1765–1768 event was also the most extreme multi‐year drought across all regional series when considering 36‐month accumulations (SPI‐36). Newspaper and other sources confirm the occurrence and major socio‐economic impact of this drought, such as major rivers like the Shannon being fordable by foot. Our results provide new insights into historical droughts across the British Irish Isles. Given the importance of historical droughts for stress‐testing the resilience of water resources, drought plans and supply systems, the forgotten drought of 1765–1768 offers perhaps the most extreme benchmark scenario in more than 250‐years. Abstract : We reconstruct and re‐evaluate historical droughts across the British Irish Isles (England and Wales, Scotland and Ireland) since 1748 and identify a major, "forgotten" drought in 1765–1768. We show that the event was likely the most extreme multi‐year drought across the region. Newspaper and other sources confirm the occurrence and major socio‐economic impact of this drought, which offers perhaps the most extreme benchmark scenario in more than 250‐years for stress‐testing drought and water resource plans. … (more)
- Is Part Of:
- International journal of climatology. Volume 40:Number 12(2020)
- Journal:
- International journal of climatology
- Issue:
- Volume 40:Number 12(2020)
- Issue Display:
- Volume 40, Issue 12 (2020)
- Year:
- 2020
- Volume:
- 40
- Issue:
- 12
- Issue Sort Value:
- 2020-0040-0012-0000
- Page Start:
- 5329
- Page End:
- 5351
- Publication Date:
- 2020-02-25
- Subjects:
- documentary sources -- England and Wales precipitation -- historical drought -- Ireland -- Scotland -- UK -- water planning
Climatology -- Periodicals
Climat -- Périodiques
Climatologie -- Périodiques
551.605 - Journal URLs:
- http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/ ↗
- DOI:
- 10.1002/joc.6521 ↗
- Languages:
- English
- ISSNs:
- 0899-8418
- Deposit Type:
- Legaldeposit
- View Content:
- Available online (eLD content is only available in our Reading Rooms) ↗
- Physical Locations:
- British Library DSC - 4542.168000
British Library DSC - BLDSS-3PM
British Library STI - ELD Digital store - Ingest File:
- 14399.xml