Nomogram for Predicting Long-Term Survival after Synchronous Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma and Inferior Vena Cava Tumor Thrombosis: A Multicenter Retrospective Study. (8th April 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Bai, Yannan; Wu, Jiayi; Zeng, Yong; Chen, Jie; Wang, Shuangjia; Chen, Shi; Qiu, Funan; Zhou, Songqiang; You, Shen; Tian, Yifeng; Wang, Yaodong; Yan, Maolin
• Other Names: Silvestris Nicola Academic Editor.
• Is Part Of: Journal of oncology. Volume 2020(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-04-08
• Subjects: Oncology -- Research -- Periodicals; Tumors -- Periodicals; Neoplasms; Oncology -- Research; Tumors; Periodicals; Periodicals; 616.994
• DOI: 10.1155/2020/3264079
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1687-8450

Abstract

Abstract : Background . Although surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) complicated with inferior vena cava tumor thrombus (IVCTT) may improve survival for some patients, prognostic markers remain elusive because of its rarity. We constructed a prognostic nomogram which predicts individualized survival benefit of curative-intent surgery for HCC patients with IVCTT. Methods . According to abdominothoracic anatomy of inferior vena cava (IVC), IVCTT can be divided into 3 types: inferior diaphragmic (ID), superior diaphragmic (SD), and intracardiac type (IC). Data of 64 HCC patients with IVCTT who underwent curative-intent surgery between 2008 and 2015 in four centers in China were analyzed retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to select variables for the construction of a prognostic nomogram. Predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were examined by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve. Results . Of 64 patients in the IVCTT classification, 37 (57.8%) were classified as ID type, 15 (23.4%) as SD type, and 12 (18.8%) as IC type. The 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year disease-specific survival (DSS) rates for patients in ID, SD, and IC groups were 94.4%, 55.6%, 71.4%, and 30.0%; 27.8%, 21.4%, 7.1%, and 0%; and 8.3%, 0%, 0%, and 0%, respectively. Independent factors included in the nomogram were ECOG performance status, AFP level ≥ 400 μ g/L, tumor size ≥ 10 cm, portal vein tumor thrombosis, and IVCTT classification. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.812 (95% CI 0.761–0.873). The calibration plot for DSS probability showed excellent agreement between the prediction by nomogram and actual observation. Conclusions . Curative-intent surgery should be carefully evaluated and suggested according to our novel IVCTT classification. We have developed a visual web-based nomogram model to predict oncological prognosis of curative-intent surgery for HCC patients with IVCTT.