A Silent Infection Pandemic of COVID-19: Epidemiological Investigation and Hypothetical Models. (7th July 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Geng, Jianping; Yu, Jun; Lu, Tao; Wang, Yinhe; Cao, Yang
• Other Names: Oteo José A. Academic Editor.
• Is Part Of: Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology =. Volume 2020(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-07-07
• Subjects: Communicable diseases -- Periodicals; Infection -- Periodicals; Communicable diseases; Infection; Communicable Diseases; Communicable Disease Control; Electronic journals; Periodicals; Fulltext; Internet Resources; Periodicals; 616.9
• DOI: 10.1155/2020/5120253
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1712-9532

Abstract

Abstract : To explore the epidemic mode of COVID-19, we made an epidemiological investigation, set up hypothetical models, and compared them with hepatitis A virus (HAV) age-specific epidemic characteristic. In the epidemiological investigation, we reported the first familial COVID-19 silent infection in the world. A 19-year-old healthy female COVID-19 virus carrier without any symptoms caused two mild and one severe pneumonia. In hypothetical models, the silent infection rate ranges from 60% to 80% based on 3 sources: China mainland, evacuation of 4 nationals, and the ship "Diamond Princess, " respectively. In comparison with HAV, COVID-19 shows the same infection mode in children (aged 0–9 years), but significant difference in young adults (aged 10–44 years) and the elderly (aged 45 years or older). Therefore, we prejudged that COVID-19 is a silent infection pandemic mainly in young adults but threatens the elderly.