Destination Estimation for Bus Passengers Based on Data Fusion. (16th September 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Liu, Wusheng; Tan, Qian; Liu, Lisheng
• Other Names: Abulkasim Hussein Academic Editor.
• Is Part Of: Mathematical problems in engineering. Volume 2020(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-09-16
• Subjects: Engineering mathematics -- Periodicals; 510.2462
• DOI: 10.1155/2020/8305475
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1024-123X

Abstract

Abstract : The planning and operation of urban buses depend heavily on the time-varying origin-destination (OD) matrix for bus passengers. In most cities, however, only boarding information is recorded, while the alighting information is not available. This paper proposes a novel method to predict the destination of a single bus passenger based on bus smartcard data, metro smartcard data, and global positioning system (GPS) bus data. First, the attractiveness of each bus stop in a bus line was evaluated, considering the attractiveness of nearby metro stations. Then, the exploration and preferential return (EPR) model was employed to estimate the probability of a bus stop to be the alighting stop, i.e., the destination, of a passenger. The estimation result was obtained through a simulation based on the Monte Carlo (MC) algorithm. The effectiveness of our method was proved through a case study on the bus network in Shenzhen, China.