Differences in power law growth over time and indicators of COVID-19 pandemic progression worldwide. (24th September 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Merrin, Jack
• Is Part Of: Physical biology. Volume 17:Number 6(2020:Dec.)
• Publication Date: 2020-09-24
• Subjects: COVID-19 -- power law -- logistic -- coronavirus -- SIR model; Biophysics -- Periodicals; Biochemistry -- Periodicals; Biology -- Data processing -- Periodicals; 570.5
• DOI: 10.1088/1478-3975/abb2db
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1478-3967

Abstract

Abstract: Error analysis and data visualization of positive COVID-19 cases in 27 countries have been performed up to August 8, 2020. This survey generally observes a progression from early exponential growth transitioning to an intermediate power-law growth phase, as recently suggested by Ziff and Ziff. The occurrence of logistic growth after the power-law phase with lockdowns or social distancing may be described as an effect of avoidance. A visualization of the power-law growth exponent over short time windows is qualitatively similar to the Bhatia visualization for pandemic progression. Visualizations like these can indicate the onset of second waves and may influence social policy.