The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability. (5th July 2019)
- Record Type:
- Journal Article
- Title:
- The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability. (5th July 2019)
- Main Title:
- The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble: Enabling the Exploration of Climate System Variability
- Authors:
- Maher, Nicola
Milinski, Sebastian
Suarez‐Gutierrez, Laura
Botzet, Michael
Dobrynin, Mikhail
Kornblueh, Luis
Kröger, Jürgen
Takano, Yohei
Ghosh, Rohit
Hedemann, Christopher
Li, Chao
Li, Hongmei
Manzini, Elisa
Notz, Dirk
Putrasahan, Dian
Boysen, Lena
Claussen, Martin
Ilyina, Tatiana
Olonscheck, Dirk
Raddatz, Thomas
Stevens, Bjorn
Marotzke, Jochem - Abstract:
- Abstract: The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI‐GE) is the largest ensemble of a single comprehensive climate model currently available, with 100 members for the historical simulations (1850–2005) and four forcing scenarios. It is currently the only large ensemble available that includes scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and a 1% CO2 scenario. These advantages make MPI‐GE a powerful tool. We present an overview of MPI‐GE, its components, and detail the experiments completed. We demonstrate how to separate the forced response from internal variability in a large ensemble. This separation allows the quantification of both the forced signal under climate change and the internal variability to unprecedented precision. We then demonstrate multiple ways to evaluate MPI‐GE and put observations in the context of a large ensemble, including a novel approach for comparing model internal variability with estimated observed variability. Finally, we present four novel analyses, which can only be completed using a large ensemble. First, we address whether temperature and precipitation have a pathway dependence using the forcing scenarios. Second, the forced signal of the highly noisy atmospheric circulation is computed, and different drivers are identified to be important for the North Pacific and North Atlantic regions. Third, we use the ensemble dimension to investigate the time dependency of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability changesAbstract: The Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI‐GE) is the largest ensemble of a single comprehensive climate model currently available, with 100 members for the historical simulations (1850–2005) and four forcing scenarios. It is currently the only large ensemble available that includes scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and a 1% CO2 scenario. These advantages make MPI‐GE a powerful tool. We present an overview of MPI‐GE, its components, and detail the experiments completed. We demonstrate how to separate the forced response from internal variability in a large ensemble. This separation allows the quantification of both the forced signal under climate change and the internal variability to unprecedented precision. We then demonstrate multiple ways to evaluate MPI‐GE and put observations in the context of a large ensemble, including a novel approach for comparing model internal variability with estimated observed variability. Finally, we present four novel analyses, which can only be completed using a large ensemble. First, we address whether temperature and precipitation have a pathway dependence using the forcing scenarios. Second, the forced signal of the highly noisy atmospheric circulation is computed, and different drivers are identified to be important for the North Pacific and North Atlantic regions. Third, we use the ensemble dimension to investigate the time dependency of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation variability changes under global warming. Last, sea level pressure is used as an example to demonstrate how MPI‐GE can be utilized to estimate the ensemble size needed for a given scientific problem and provide insights for future ensemble projects. Key Points: The 100‐member MPI‐GE is currently the largest publicly available ensemble of a comprehensive climate model MPI‐GE currently has the most forcing scenarios of all large ensemble projects: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, and 1% CO2 The power of MPI‐GE is to estimate the forced response and internal variability, including changing variability, to unprecedented precision … (more)
- Is Part Of:
- Journal of advances in modeling earth systems. Volume 11:Number 7(2019)
- Journal:
- Journal of advances in modeling earth systems
- Issue:
- Volume 11:Number 7(2019)
- Issue Display:
- Volume 11, Issue 7 (2019)
- Year:
- 2019
- Volume:
- 11
- Issue:
- 7
- Issue Sort Value:
- 2019-0011-0007-0000
- Page Start:
- 2050
- Page End:
- 2069
- Publication Date:
- 2019-07-05
- Subjects:
- large ensemble -- MPI‐GE -- internal variability -- forced response
Geological modeling -- Periodicals
Climatology -- Periodicals
Geochemical modeling -- Periodicals
551.5011 - Journal URLs:
- http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1942-2466 ↗
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/ ↗
http://adv-model-earth-syst.org/ ↗ - DOI:
- 10.1029/2019MS001639 ↗
- Languages:
- English
- ISSNs:
- 1942-2466
- Deposit Type:
- Legaldeposit
- View Content:
- Available online (eLD content is only available in our Reading Rooms) ↗
- Physical Locations:
- British Library DSC - BLDSS-3PM
British Library HMNTS - ELD Digital store - Ingest File:
- 14253.xml