Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub‐Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development. (5th May 2014)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Müller, Christoph; Waha, Katharina; Bondeau, Alberte; Heinke, Jens
• Is Part Of: Global change biology. Volume 20:Number 8(2014:Aug.)
• Page Start: 2505
• Page End: 2517
• Publication Date: 2014-05-05
• Subjects: adaptation -- climate change -- development -- impacts -- modeling -- sub‐Saharan Africa; Climatic changes -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Troposphere -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Biodiversity conservation -- Periodicals; Eutrophication -- Periodicals; 551.5
• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.12586
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1354-1013

Abstract

Abstract: Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub‐Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts.