Climate change impact on energy demand in building-urban-atmosphere simulations through the 21st century. (18th December 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Lipson, Mathew J; Thatcher, Marcus; Hart, Melissa A; Pitman, Andrew
• Is Part Of: Environmental research letters. Volume 14:Number 12(2019:Dec.)
• Publication Date: 2019-12-18
• Subjects: urban climate -- building energy -- climate change -- peak demand -- global climate model -- electricity and gas; Environmental sciences -- Periodicals; Human ecology -- Research -- Periodicals; Environmental health -- Periodicals; 333.7
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5aa5
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1748-9326

Abstract

Abstract: Social, technological and climatic changes will transform the way energy is consumed over the 21st century, with important implications for energy networks and greenhouse gas emissions. Here, we develop a method to efficiently explore climate-energy interactions under various scenarios of climate, urban infrastructure and technological change. We couple the Urban Climate and Energy Model with the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model as a full-height single column driven with a series of global climate model simulations in an ensemble approach. The framework is evaluated against observations, then a series of century-scale simulations are undertaken to examine projected climate change impacts on electricity and gas demand in the temperate/ oceanic climate of Melbourne, Australia. With air-conditioning ownership remaining at early 21st century levels, and in the absence of other changes, climate change under radiative forcing RCP 8.5 increases peak electricity demand by 10%, and decreases peak gas demand by 22% between 2000 and 2100. However, if projected increases in air-conditioning ownership are considered, peak electricity demand increases by 84%, surpassing peak gas demand in the second half of the century. These findings highlight the complex nature of changes facing energy networks. Changes will be location and scenario dependent.