Mining prognostic factors of extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer patients using nomogram model. Issue 33 (14th August 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gao, Hongxiang; Dang, Yazheng; Qi, Tao; Huang, Shigao; Zhang, Xiaozhi
• Other Names: Das. Undurti N. section editor.
• Is Part Of: Medicine. Volume 99:Issue 33(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-08-14
• Subjects: extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer -- multiple metastatic -- nomogram model -- prediction -- Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results; Medicine -- Periodicals; Medicine -- Periodicals; Médecine -- Périodiques; Geneeskunde; Medicine; Periodicals; Periodicals; 610.5
• DOI: 10.1097/MD.0000000000021798
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0025-7974

Abstract

Abstract : Abstract: This study is to establish the nomogram model and provide clinical therapy decision-making for extensive-stage small-cell lung cancer (ES-SCLC) patients with different metastatic sites using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. A total of 10, 025 patients of ES-SCLC with metastasis from January 2010 to December 2016 were enrolled from the SEER database. All samples were randomly divided into a derivation cohort and a validation cohort, and the derivation cohort was divided into 6 groups by different metastatic sites: bone, liver, lung, brain, multiple organs, and other organs. Using Cox proportional hazards models to analyze candidate prognostic factors, screening out the independent prognostic factors to establish the nomogram. Compare the different models by Net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement. Concordance index (C-index) and the calibration curve were used to verify the prediction efficiency of the nomogram in the derivation cohort and validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, the median overall survival was 7 months. The overall survival rates at 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year were 55.07%, 24.61%, and 7.56%, respectively. The median survival time was 10, 8, 7, 9, 7, and 6 months for the 6 groups of different metastatic sites: other, bone, liver, lung, brain, and multiple organs, respectively. Age, sex, race, T, N, distant metastatic site, and chemotherapy were contained in the final nomogram prognostic model. The C-index was 0.6569777 in the derivation cohort and 0.8386301 in the validation cohort. The survival time of ES-SCLC patients with different metastatic sites was significantly different. The nomogram can effectively predict the prognosis of individuals and provide a basis for clinical decision-making.